September 2026 Monthly Economic Update

Bolton’s September 2026 Monthly Economic Update provides a clear, data‑driven snapshot of the U.S. economy amid ongoing market uncertainty.

download full report

Perspectives from our CIO:

• The economy was stronger in the second quarter than previously reported. The final estimate of second-quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%. First-quarter growth was also revised to 2.5%. Growth still slowed from the first quarter, but the latest revisions show that the economy entered the second half of the year on firmer footing than earlier estimates suggested.

• Inflation pressures became more concentrated in energy, while interest rates moved higher. August PCE inflation eased to 3.4%, but September CPI rose to 3.7%. Energy prices were a major contributor, with gasoline prices up sharply from a year ago. At the same time, Treasury yields moved meaningfully higher across the curve during September. This combination keeps inflation and interest rates at the forefront for both consumers and investors.

• Consumer spending remains resilient, but confidence and job growth have softened. Retail sales increased 6.3% from a year ago and 0.8% during September. At the same time, consumer sentiment fell again, unemployment held at 4.2%, and payroll growth was relatively modest. The consumer continues to spend, but confidence and labor market momentum have weakened.

• The housing market continues to move toward better balance. Existing home prices declined from the prior month, while available inventory remained near 4.8 months of supply. Even with the monthly decline, national home prices remain above year-ago levels. More inventory is helping improve market balance, although affordability remains a challenge given current prices and borrowing costs.

• The headline equity market masked considerably weaker performance beneath the surface. The S&P 500 declined by 0.35% in September, but smaller companies and the equal-weight index experienced much larger declines while mega-cap technology stocks performed significantly better.

Download the full September 2026 Monthly Economic Update to the right to explore the data and insights in more detail.