August 2026 Monthly Economic Update

Bolton’s August 2026 Monthly Economic Update provides a clear, data‑driven snapshot of the U.S. economy amid ongoing market uncertainty.

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Perspectives from our CIO:

• Inflation remains elevated, with energy still playing an outsized role. Headline CPI remained at 3.4% year over year, while energy continued to be a significant contributor to inflation. Gasoline prices remain volatile, reinforcing the importance of looking beyond the headline number to understand where inflation pressures are coming from.
• Consumers continue to spend despite weaker confidence. Consumer sentiment declined in August, but retail sales increased 6.0% from a year ago and unemployment held at 4.1%. Consumers remain active even as inflation and broader economic uncertainty continue to weigh on confidence.
• Interest rate movements remain an important consideration for fixed income portfolios. Treasury yields remain well above where they began the year, although the changes have varied across different maturities. This creates both challenges and opportunities, particularly when considering where to take interest rate exposure and how to position portfolios along the yield curve.
• Housing supply is improving, but affordability remains a challenge. Existing home inventory increased to 4.9 months of supply, as home prices remained elevated. Higher prices and financing costs continue to make affordability difficult for many households.
• Equity markets advanced as corporate fundamentals continued to improve. The S&P 500 posted gains during August, while profit margins continued to rise and the index’s P/E multiple declined. This suggests that recent market gains have been supported by improving corporate earnings and/or profitability.

Download the full August 2026 Monthly Economic Update to the right to explore the data and insights in more detail.