June 2026 Monthly Economic Update

Bolton’s May 2026 Monthly Economic Update provides a clear, data‑driven snapshot of the U.S. economy amid ongoing market uncertainty.

download full report

Perspectives from our CIO:

• Economic conditions remain mixed. First-quarter GDP growth was revised upward from 1.6% to 2.1%, reflecting a somewhat stronger economy than previously reported. At the same time, consumer prices, as measured by PCE, have moved above the wage-growth measure shown in the update. Energy remains a leading source of inflation pressure, meaning higher energy costs continue to affect both households and businesses.
• Interest rates also remain elevated. Treasury yields have risen since the end of 2025, with the most noticeable increases occurring among shorter-term maturities. For committees, the key takeaway is that both borrowing costs and the income available from shorter-term fixed income investments remain higher than they have been in recent years.
• The labor market continues to show resilience, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.2%. However, that stability has not yet translated into stronger consumer confidence. Although sentiment improved modestly in June, it remains below the lows reached in 2022, as persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on households’ outlook
• The broader equity market declined modestly during June, despite continued strength among semiconductor and memory-chip companies. Weakness among several of the market’s largest companies offset much of those gains, illustrating how headline index performance can mask meaningful differences beneath the surface.

Download the full June 2026 Monthly Economic Update to the right to explore the data and insights in more detail.