May 2026 Monthly Economic Update

Bolton’s May 2026 Monthly Economic Update provides a clear, data‑driven snapshot of the U.S. economy amid ongoing market uncertainty.

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Perspectives from our CIO:

• Economic growth appears to be moderating, with the second revision of first quarter U.S. GDP revised lower from 2.0% to 1.6%. At the same time, inflation pressures have picked back up, driven largely by higher energy costs as conflict in the Middle East continues to keep oil and gasoline prices elevated. Gasoline prices are now up approximately 40% from this time last year, which is putting renewed pressure on household budgets.

• Interest rates also remain an important area to monitor. The yield curve has steepened since the start of 2025, but yields across the curve have continued to rise. For committees, the practical takeaway is that borrowing costs remain elevated, and fixed income markets continue to reflect uncertainty around inflation, growth, and future Federal Reserve policy.

• The labor market remains relatively steady, with unemployment holding flat at 4.3% as job growth came in stronger than expected. However, consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in the last decade, reflecting the impact of rising inflation, higher energy prices, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In plain terms, consumers may still be employed, but they are feeling less confident about the broader economic environment.

• Equity markets, meanwhile, have continued to show strength. The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, supported in part by renewed momentum in AI-related stocks, including sharp monthly gains from companies such as Micron and AMD. While this has helped drive market returns, it also reinforces the importance of understanding where performance is concentrated and maintaining a disciplined, diversified investment approach.

Designed to help plan sponsors, investors, and business leaders stay informed, the report brings together key indicators across growth, inflation, employment, consumer behavior, housing, and financial markets, supported by analysis and visuals sourced from FactSet and other trusted providers.

Download the full May 2026 Monthly Economic Update to the right to explore the data and insights in more detail.